Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 5.480531 6.429828 7.477699 8.717830 10.142966 11.726908 13.618134
2025-08-03 3.968368 5.232817 6.778817 8.797084 11.350040 14.458463 18.514940
2025-08-10 2.895659 4.225860 6.001469 8.519677 11.968993 16.493289 22.834874
2025-08-17 2.151284 3.435899 5.288486 8.111779 12.251529 18.033264 26.634739
2025-08-24 1.706053 2.951989 4.875284 7.995340 12.845489 19.989737 31.163037
2025-08-31 1.388327 2.585036 4.550094 7.921970 13.442807 21.964647 35.886023
2025-09-07 1.215139 2.414798 4.494942 8.243472 14.662499 24.975947 42.459759
2025-09-14 1.033925 2.188904 4.299617 8.285627 15.407670 27.290110 48.142665
2025-09-21 0.885361 1.991152 4.115231 8.307094 16.099733 29.562449 53.951928
2025-09-28 0.762886 1.818328 3.944489 8.319183 16.760251 31.825623 59.936079
2025-10-05 0.734036 1.835644 4.143293 9.055780 18.824888 36.723551 70.919954
2025-10-12 0.667333 1.755343 4.129684 9.366139 20.109140 40.329290 79.906778
2025-10-19 0.608895 1.685718 4.134428 9.729309 21.568559 44.452695 90.322658
2025-10-26 0.531711 1.554608 3.984461 9.746843 22.341797 47.369439 98.786539
2025-11-02 0.444247 1.376705 3.696518 9.417546 22.352109 48.803364 104.545433
2025-11-09 0.364537 1.199273 3.376225 8.961950 22.027204 49.523537 108.952769
2025-11-16 0.313910 1.090891 3.206103 8.831346 22.396780 51.686695 116.432347
2025-11-23 0.272950 1.000602 3.065614 8.749896 22.863548 54.088868 124.598794
2025-11-30 0.254283 0.975458 3.095220 9.101446 24.382124 58.880850 138.168250
2025-12-07 0.226774 0.914086 3.012714 9.147433 25.168097 62.128026 148.680983
2025-12-14 0.201983 0.855315 2.926798 9.170873 25.899383 65.313990 159.312463
2025-12-21 0.179968 0.800351 2.841934 9.184083 26.604860 68.499916 170.193442
2025-12-28 0.180690 0.831147 3.026991 9.989966 29.443068 76.878579 193.400526